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China's race to develop smarter-than-human artificial intelligence may put it ahead of the US, but such innovative technology could also risk undermining the stranglehold the ruling Communist Party has over the world's second-largest economy.
This is the perspective of renowned AI scientist Max Tegmark, who told CNBC that artificial general intelligence (AGI) is closer than we think, and the narrative of the geopolitical battle between the US and China as they race to create the smartest AI, is a “suicide race”.
Although there is no single definition of AGI, it is widely accepted that it refers to AI that can outsmart humans.
Apps like ChatGPT – which allow users to prompt a chatbot for responses – have exploded in popularity. But many AI companies are racing to develop the next level, with AI that has human-level intelligence.
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, said that AGI could be achieved by 2025. While there are other big names in the tech sector who also think AGI is close, many others I think true AGI is still a long way off.
In addition to the competition between tech companies, there is also a geopolitical battle going on between the US and China for dominance in fields from AI to chips. Although this is often described as a race to be first with the latest technology, Tegmark said that is not the correct framework.
“I think of this battle, this geopolitical battle to build AGI first, as a 'hopium war,'” Tegmark told CNBC in an interview last month. “I call it the 'Hopi War' because it's fueled by a…deluded hope that we can control AGI.”
Tegmark is president of the Future of Life Institute, a think tank that last year wrote a letter urging AI labs to pause in the development of advanced AI systems. The letter is signed by big tech names including Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Tegmark's concern is that AI is advancing rapidly with very few guardrails and no way to control it if it starts outsmarting humans.
“We are much closer to building AGI than we are to figuring out how to control it. And that means the AGI race is not an arms race, it's a suicide race,” Tegmark said.
Is China worried about AGI?
China has little incentive to build AGI, according to Tegmark. The artificial intelligence scientist recalled a story in which Elon Musk told him about a “high-level meeting” the Tesla boss had with Chinese government officials in early 2023. Musk has told the Chinese government that if AGI is built, China “will not be controlled by the Communist Party, but by superintelligence,” Tegmark said.
“(Musk) got a very strong reaction. “Some of them really hadn't thought about it, and less than a month after that, China came out with its first AI rules,” said Tegmark, citing a new regulation governing generative AI.
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs was not available for comment on the anecdote. CNBC also reached out to Tesla for a response from Musk.
China is looking to challenge the US in the field of artificial intelligence. Chinese tech giants have launched their own AI models.
Niphon | Istock | Getty Images
“The US does not need to convince China not to build AGI. “Even if the US didn't exist, the Chinese government would have an incentive not to build it because they want to be in control,” Tegmark said.
“(The) last thing they want is to lose that control.”
China's approach to AI
AI is a strategic priority for the Chinese government. The largest companies in the country such as AlibabaHuawei and Tencent have been developing proprietary AI models. The capabilities of these models are also advancing.
China was also among the first countries in the world to introduce regulations various aspects of AI. The Internet in the country is heavily censored, and any information that appears to contradict Beijing's ideology is blocked. OpenAI's ChatGPT is banned and it is well noted that chatbots in China will not respond to questions related to politics and topics considered sensitive by the Communist Party.
The country's approach to AI is therefore an attempt to promote innovation while balancing its own interests. As for AGI, China is likely to follow a similar approach, according to analysts.
“I wouldn't count on China to limit its own AI capabilities out of concern that such technologies would threaten party rule.” “Similar predictions were made about the Internet, they all turned out to be wrong,” Kendra Schaefer, a partner at consulting firm Trivium China, told CNBC.
“China will try to dominate AGI while creating a technology-regulatory apparatus that limits what AGI is allowed to do domestically.”
AI battle between US and China
Despite Tegmark's view that the race to build AGI is a “hopium war,” geopolitics remain at the center of attention between the US and China when it comes to developing the technology.
“Right now, China is looking at AI through a dual lens: geopolitical power and domestic growth,” said Abishur Prakash, founder and geopolitical strategist at Toronto-based strategy consulting firm The Geopolitical Business.
“With AI, China hopes to change the balance of power in the world, such as creating a new export model. And in parallel, China wants to power its economy in new ways, from government efficiency to business applications,” Prakash told CNBC.
The US has pursued a policy of trying to limit China's access to key technologies, mainly semiconductors such as those designed by Nvidiawhich are needed to train more advanced AI models. China responded by trying to build its own chip industry.
Will the US and China partner on AI rules?
Technologists have warned of some of the risks and dangers when AGI finally arrives. One theory is that without railings, AI will be able to improve itself and design new systems independently.
Tegmark believes that any such risks will be realized by both the US and China, forcing the governments of both countries to separately come up with rules regarding AI safety.
“So my optimistic way forward is for the US and China to unilaterally impose national safety standards to prevent their own companies from harming and building uncontrollable AGIs, not to appease rival superpowers, but simply to protect themselves.” Tegmark said.
“Once that happens, though, there's this really interesting stage where the U.S. and China are going to say, wait, how can we ensure that North Korea doesn't build an AGI or someone else?” And then the US and China have an incentive now to push for the rest of the world to join them in an AGI moratorium.”
In fact, governments are already trying to work together to figure out how to create regulations and frameworks around AI. Last year, the UK hosted an AI safety summit attended by both the US and China to discuss potential safeguards around the technology.
But regulation and rules around AI are currently fragmented. this year, The European Union passed the AI Actthe first great law globally governing technology. China has its own set of rules, while many other countries have yet to undertake any regulations.
Tegmark's hope for coordination around AI safety is echoed by others.
“When the dangers of competition outweigh the rewards, nations will ideally be motivated to come together and mutually self-regulate,” Trivium China's Schaefer said.
“Indeed, some Chinese politicians have advocated pre-empting this potential problem and creating an international governing body at the United Nations — similar to the International Atomic Energy Agency — so there is a desire on the part of Beijing to create a global governing body,” she said. said.
